PPA architecture for the post-subsidy era.

Feed-in tariffs are ending. Contracts-for-difference are narrower than the industry pretends. What replaces public offtake in the 2025–2035 window is private offtake — and the quality of the PPA is now the most important single variable in renewable-asset underwriting.

Three dimensions matter more than headline price. Offtaker credit: an investment-grade counterparty on a ten-year contract is worth more than a BB counterparty on a fifteen-year contract. Structure: pay-as-produced is not the same as baseload; volume risk allocation is where poorly-drafted PPAs destroy equity returns in year five. Jurisdiction: the enforceability of the contract under local bankruptcy regimes is a real variable, not a footnote.

Our internal standard is an 8–15 year investment-grade PPA on no more than 75% of expected production, with a controlled merchant tranche and explicit renegotiation triggers if the offtaker's rating deteriorates. We refuse mandates where the PPA architecture does not survive a simple downside stress test. That discipline costs us deal volume. It is the single biggest reason our base-case returns are actually achievable.